The fine wine trade’s annual ‘Baby Bordeaux Bonanza’ is over and as the 2021 vintage En Primeurs trade on the secondary market, what should investors consider?
Bordeaux 2021 headlines:
- A complicated vintage with some outstanding quality wines
- Frost and mildew impacted yields with some estates seeing 50% losses
- Expensive vintage to produce with increased labour, equipment and operating costs
- En primeur release prices failed to excite the market
Conditions shaping 2021 supply:
To recap, nature threw all the toys out of the pram in 2021. Devastating frosts, which seem to be becoming an annual event, killed off some early growth and intense rain periods triggered mass-mildew, both impacting yield.
Chateaux overheads soared as a vintage that required micro-management in the vineyards, demanded increased headcounts with some estates nearly doubling their hands on the vines to cope with minimising mildew damage and intensive harvests. Covid had sucked some supply out of the local labour force and rising costs ensued.
Combine with this the need to invest in further machinery and technology to optimise yields in a vintage plagued by moisture and mildew added financial pressure. Optical sorters are routine kit for investment wine producers, but some key estates such as Ausone and Angelus are also using density baths. Owners with pockets deep enough to handle these challenges still struggled to achieve annual productivity norms. Across the Bordeaux region, the 2021 yield was 14% below 2020. Some well-resourced estates may have achieved vintage averages, but others reported the lowest yields in 30 years.
This campaign, an even greater number of the Bordeaux Chateaux chose to reduce the size of their en primeur allocations, a factor that frustrated the trade. On average the 2021 releases were down 20% to 30% on the 2020s.
Bordeaux 2021 quality:
The vintage trade tastings took place in late April this year, after which the key critics published their quality scores during early May, catalysing the campaign launch. Of the most influential critics; Neal Martin and Antonio Galloni of Vinous, William Kennedy of the Wine Advocate, James Suckling, newly independent Lisa Perrotti-Brown, and Jancis Robinson, there were no outright 100 point wines. St Emilion’s Chateau Ausone was the only wine to be credited at en primeur tastings with the potential to age to 100 points, rated 97-100 by James Suckling.
Bordeaux 2021 - most highly scored wines by key critics:
Score band | 2021 Bordeaux wine | Score | Critic |
100 points | Ausone | 97 - 100 | James Suckling |
99 points | Lafleur, Pomerol Le Pin, Pomerol Petrus, Pomerol Suduiraut, Sauternes | 98 – 99 98 – 99 98 – 99 98 – 99 | James Suckling James Suckling James Suckling James Suckling |
98 points | Lafleur Haut Brion Blanc Lafleur Haut Brion Les Carmes Haut Brion Vieux Chateau Certan Ducru Beaucaillou Doisy Daene L’Extravagant Smith Haut Lafitte Blanc | 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 96 – 98 | Neal Martin Neal Martin Wine Advocate Wine Advocate Antonio Galloni Antonio Galloni Antonio Galloni Antonio Galloni Antonio Galloni |
97 points | Haut Brion Lafleur Ausone Cheval Blanc Margaux | 95 – 97 95 – 97 95 – 97 95 – 97 95 – 97 | Lisa Perotti-Brown Lisa Perotti-Brown Lisa Perotti-Brown Lisa Perotti-Brown Lisa Perotti-Brown |
Source: jamessuckling.com, robertparker.com, vinous.com, thewineindependent.com
Jancis Robinson scores wine out of 20, and her highest rated wines of the vintage at en primeur tastings were First Growth Chateau Haut Brion 2021 and Pomerol’s Chateau Lafleur. She awarded both wines an excellent 18 points and Lafite Rothschild 17.5++ has the potential to see future quality scores improve with age, along with Mouton Rothschild, rated 175+. Lafleur was consistently highly rated by all of the key critics.
Neal Martin’s average critical score for the 2021 vintage was two points lower than 2020, and whilst the growing conditions make it a fairly unique vintage, quality scores see it most comparable to Bordeaux 2014.
En Primeurs 2021 release prices and demand:
The Bordeaux Chateaux’s pricing strategy generally dictates the mood of the annual en primeur campaign. The 2019 vintage release in 2020 reinvigorated the market, priced at a good discount from the 2018 vintage to encourage the trade to participate with the backdrop of the first six months of the pandemic and resultant economic turmoil. The 2020 releases last year saw prices shift to the more usual levels of the last decade, with Chateaux issuing smaller allocations.
2021 follows a triumvirate of great vintages in 2018, 2019 and 2020. This is a complex vintage with blends adjusted to accommodate the climate impacts. It is a smaller vintage, and there is an argument that reduced supply naturally supports higher prices.
The general trend in 2021 was to release at prices about the same level as the 2020 wines, the average was in fact 1% lower. A small number discounted further, for example Chateau Montrose sold at 10.6% below its 2020 price. Given the vintage quality comparison was not on a par with the Prime 2020 vintage, but rather the Mid-Prime 2014, the price trend was coolly received. On average the 2021 en primeurs’ release prices were significantly more expensive than current 2014 market prices. Another factor to diminish demand.
Bordeaux 2021 En Primeurs - our opinion:
This year’s campaign didn’t do Bordeaux’s ‘futures’ sales model any favours, with 2021 prices on the secondary market discounted by 15% from the release prices by the end of the campaign. A key measurement of the level of engagement was observed in the week that First Growths Haut Brion, Margaux and Mouton Rothschild released amongst other key wines, which should have seen the campaign dominate market trade, Burgundy had its highest ever share of weekly trade on Liv-ex.
We took the view that the 2021 en primeurs releases had to be considered carefully and then, once it was clear that prices were not directly correlating with quality and market conditions, we decided to defer any acquisitions of target wines to when our criteria are met. In fact, we continued to respond to our clients’ demand for Burgundy during the campaign period with an exclusive parcel of Leroy wines.
There can be significant benefits to investing in en primeur wines, but unfortunately the release strategy adopted by Bordeaux this year eroded some of that value. The market is already shaping price and investors can acquire some of the outstanding wines of the 2021 vintage now at prices below release. We will be monitoring them closely and choosing our time to enter this market carefully.
For more information on the benefits of investing in en primeur wines and the current best wine investment opportunities in the market contact our specialist team on 0203 384 2262.